Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
